11 December 2011
The year 2011
15/12/11 15:38
In two weeks time we may celebrate the end of the year 2011, an annus horibilis par excellence for politicians, economists and trend-watchers. Politicians have been exposed as powerless, without vision and possibly without brains, bankers have been exposed as powerful and greedy till the world shall be ruined, economists have all the answers but no solution, and trend-watchers were wrong as usual. We might see the collapse of the Euro, the downfall of Kodak, the extinction of the tiger and the possible transfer of Olympus to Fuji, a new champion in the global electronics market. Pentax has already been integrated with Ricoh, Sony is re-inventing themselves with the Nex(t)-series and Canon has been so surprised by the success of the 5D in Hollywood circles that they now have a plan for a whole new line of cameras and camera-systems for digital cinematographic recording. (Yes, a few years ago I predicted the convergence of photographic and cinematographic domains in one single technology). If this strategic change will prove to be solid, the chemical film business of Kodak that is based on cinematographic products (and as a by-product some photographic films too) will be doomed and with it the fine range of BW and CN films of the Yellow Giant.
Investing in cinema systems is a smart move, maybe more profitable than producing yet-another mirrorless system camera (the camera division of Olympus is a loss making enterprise for years in a row). Leica made a comparable move with their Summilux-C series of lenses and it makes sense to move into markets with high profit margins and minimal competition. The surge of interest (artistic and commercial) in film making resembles the early decades of the twentieth century when some of the greatest films ever ave been produced.
Some predict that Leica will introduce a mirrorless camera, positioned between X1 and M9, at Photokina 2012 (according to German magazine Fotomagazin; they have been wrong more often than not in this respect, but they could refer to an interview in June 2011 with the current Leica CEO) and Leica itself with help of Blackstone will open up scores of luxury shops in China in the hope that this huge country will not become the Japan of the 21 century.
It is now obvious that the affluence of the West in the last three decades will be vaporized by an enormous pile of debt and in fact never was real prosperity, but something we all assumed because we thought that whatever debt we made we could settle this with ever increasing wealth. So we bought millions of expensive cameras we could not afford assuming that the stock market will rescue us all. We were happy to buy any new generation of cameras and lenses in a three year cycle because it is crystal clear that a Canon 20D is much less advanced than a Canon 7D and will produce mediocre imagery. Every iPad2 buyer is already wondering not why but when the new iPad3 has to be acquired. But can we afford ourselves this spending luxury for a longer period?
Some economists predict that the West will lose 20% of its current prosperity in the next five years and that spending power will shift from consumption to pensions and health care. No wonder that Leica, seeing the drop in sales in Europe, is rushing to the Far East, but can Leica adapt to the two/three year product cycle that these consumers demand.
Worldwide the group of photographers that cling to chemical film processing is rather stable, but will eventually die of age and a new influx is unlikely. Smart-phone recording (still and moving) might become become the world-wide standard. Optical designers will more and more integrate their designs with in-camera software programs for image enhancements and aberration correction. Aficionados will continue to claim that Leica and Zeiss lenses are the best one can buy (which is true), but with the leveling off of quality differences that computer processing and digital printing (as the preferred workflow for output) inevitably will generate, we have to ask whether we are we able or willing to pay the premium price. A stand alone Leica Summicron-M 2/35mm ASPH lens costs twice as much as a complete Fujinon X100 camera with lens. Of course there is that elusive element of proud of ownership and even cherished cultural, artistic and technical values that are a hallmark of Leica tradition and manufacture.
These values however have to be integrated into products that fit our lifestyle or that we did not know would be necessary for our lifestyle as Apple has demonstrated. And the big question becomes: what profile needs a basic photographic instrument that will cost at least Euro 10.000 (with lens) to be interesting for a new generation of consumers that has been influenced from baby days with electronic gadgetry?
Investing in cinema systems is a smart move, maybe more profitable than producing yet-another mirrorless system camera (the camera division of Olympus is a loss making enterprise for years in a row). Leica made a comparable move with their Summilux-C series of lenses and it makes sense to move into markets with high profit margins and minimal competition. The surge of interest (artistic and commercial) in film making resembles the early decades of the twentieth century when some of the greatest films ever ave been produced.
Some predict that Leica will introduce a mirrorless camera, positioned between X1 and M9, at Photokina 2012 (according to German magazine Fotomagazin; they have been wrong more often than not in this respect, but they could refer to an interview in June 2011 with the current Leica CEO) and Leica itself with help of Blackstone will open up scores of luxury shops in China in the hope that this huge country will not become the Japan of the 21 century.
It is now obvious that the affluence of the West in the last three decades will be vaporized by an enormous pile of debt and in fact never was real prosperity, but something we all assumed because we thought that whatever debt we made we could settle this with ever increasing wealth. So we bought millions of expensive cameras we could not afford assuming that the stock market will rescue us all. We were happy to buy any new generation of cameras and lenses in a three year cycle because it is crystal clear that a Canon 20D is much less advanced than a Canon 7D and will produce mediocre imagery. Every iPad2 buyer is already wondering not why but when the new iPad3 has to be acquired. But can we afford ourselves this spending luxury for a longer period?
Some economists predict that the West will lose 20% of its current prosperity in the next five years and that spending power will shift from consumption to pensions and health care. No wonder that Leica, seeing the drop in sales in Europe, is rushing to the Far East, but can Leica adapt to the two/three year product cycle that these consumers demand.
Worldwide the group of photographers that cling to chemical film processing is rather stable, but will eventually die of age and a new influx is unlikely. Smart-phone recording (still and moving) might become become the world-wide standard. Optical designers will more and more integrate their designs with in-camera software programs for image enhancements and aberration correction. Aficionados will continue to claim that Leica and Zeiss lenses are the best one can buy (which is true), but with the leveling off of quality differences that computer processing and digital printing (as the preferred workflow for output) inevitably will generate, we have to ask whether we are we able or willing to pay the premium price. A stand alone Leica Summicron-M 2/35mm ASPH lens costs twice as much as a complete Fujinon X100 camera with lens. Of course there is that elusive element of proud of ownership and even cherished cultural, artistic and technical values that are a hallmark of Leica tradition and manufacture.
These values however have to be integrated into products that fit our lifestyle or that we did not know would be necessary for our lifestyle as Apple has demonstrated. And the big question becomes: what profile needs a basic photographic instrument that will cost at least Euro 10.000 (with lens) to be interesting for a new generation of consumers that has been influenced from baby days with electronic gadgetry?