New challenges
07/03/09 19:56 Filed in: Personal
The current crisis, financial, economic and personal, will affect our lives for the next five years and it will take at least a decade before the world will be in a state of progress again. And we should settle for a lower level of prosperity than we are accustomed to. For many years we believed with the bankers of this world that we could generate something out of nothing. It is now clear that we cannot! European car manufactures can produce 18 million cars, but there is a market for 12 million. Which company will reduce its production? Saab seems sure to fail, as will many others. It is predicted that only four truck manufacturers will survive this crisis.
Basically we should applaud the current mess. A few steps back in demand and expectations will help the world as a whole to find a new road to harmony and humanity.
Rollei closed doors recently and I am sure more photographic companies will have to shut down. Pentax is an obvious candidate,and even Olympus is not immune.
In the car industry we see a major restructuring in the direction of small cars, electrical engines, and large scale capacity.
In the photographic industry we can discern the same trend: only a very large volume of products can offset the massive investments needed to keep up with the competition.
Saab is a good example: it sells only a 100.000 cars a year and has two product lines. Investment for a new model cannot be generated from the sales of the company and with two products the number of consumers that feel attracted to the marque is too small. The marque has cult status, but in todays world that is not enough to survive.
Leica is more like Saab and not like Volkswagen with millions of cars sold and a product range from Fox to Bentley and from sportscar Porsche to truck Scania and MAN. Can Leica survive?
There is a significant shift from the Leica core values to current photographic values.
Leica equals optical excellence, but this value has no longer a premium tag as software compensates increasingly and effectively the optical defects.
Leica equals mechanical excellence, but in modern manufacture precision is replaced by statistical analysis of distribution of defects.Automated machines can do better than humans but need vast sums of money.
Leica equals simplicity and a reduction of choices, but modern trends favor a multitude of options and choices.
Leica is a low volume high quality long product cycle manufacturer, but the future is for high volume high quality producers with short product cycles.
The new CEO of Leica, Rudolf Spiller worked for a long period for Zeiss in its photogrammetry and areal reconnaissance division. The business model for these products is different from the presumably very harsh competition in the digital photographic world in the near future. For the moment Leica is a most difficult position as the recent financial figures do indicate:
The Leica branded Panasonic products do not attract enough customers who want to pay a hefty price tag for a minimum of advantages.
The S2 camera is for Leica more an Formula 1 exercise (a Leistungs träger) and will presumably generate more excitement than profits.
The M community waits for the M9 and when this will be announced it will generate a disproportionate amount of interest and discussions, but will not send the buyers in droves to the shop. Stripped from emotion and nostalgia, it is and will be a niche product. I will buy the M9 as a blind date, but I am an aberration I have to confess.
The main focus of current and future buyers in the high-end photographic market is fixed on only one thing: a dslr with a 35mm sized sensor and lots of features and a huge system of lenses and accessories. This is the terrain where the announced R10 will have to do battle. If the Leica company wants to survive, the R10 will be the lifeline. That puts a lot of pressure on the design team.
If the R10 is just a product comparable to the main dslr competition, it will loose on momentum if not on excellence. The Sony 900 will not succeed versus the Nikon D3x and the Canon models.
If the R10 is just different, it will share the fate of the R8/9, a product that was just different but lacked charisma.
It is not enough to have a very well designed product with a brilliant concept like the Olympus E1 and E3: this is not what the buyers want!
Leica has not the best track record for fathoming the deep wishes of its customers. The new SX and Nx lenses for the M are admirable products, but we may legitimately ask if this is what the mainstream M user is looking for.
Challenging times indeed for the mew CEO.
Basically we should applaud the current mess. A few steps back in demand and expectations will help the world as a whole to find a new road to harmony and humanity.
Rollei closed doors recently and I am sure more photographic companies will have to shut down. Pentax is an obvious candidate,and even Olympus is not immune.
In the car industry we see a major restructuring in the direction of small cars, electrical engines, and large scale capacity.
In the photographic industry we can discern the same trend: only a very large volume of products can offset the massive investments needed to keep up with the competition.
Saab is a good example: it sells only a 100.000 cars a year and has two product lines. Investment for a new model cannot be generated from the sales of the company and with two products the number of consumers that feel attracted to the marque is too small. The marque has cult status, but in todays world that is not enough to survive.
Leica is more like Saab and not like Volkswagen with millions of cars sold and a product range from Fox to Bentley and from sportscar Porsche to truck Scania and MAN. Can Leica survive?
There is a significant shift from the Leica core values to current photographic values.
Leica equals optical excellence, but this value has no longer a premium tag as software compensates increasingly and effectively the optical defects.
Leica equals mechanical excellence, but in modern manufacture precision is replaced by statistical analysis of distribution of defects.Automated machines can do better than humans but need vast sums of money.
Leica equals simplicity and a reduction of choices, but modern trends favor a multitude of options and choices.
Leica is a low volume high quality long product cycle manufacturer, but the future is for high volume high quality producers with short product cycles.
The new CEO of Leica, Rudolf Spiller worked for a long period for Zeiss in its photogrammetry and areal reconnaissance division. The business model for these products is different from the presumably very harsh competition in the digital photographic world in the near future. For the moment Leica is a most difficult position as the recent financial figures do indicate:
The Leica branded Panasonic products do not attract enough customers who want to pay a hefty price tag for a minimum of advantages.
The S2 camera is for Leica more an Formula 1 exercise (a Leistungs träger) and will presumably generate more excitement than profits.
The M community waits for the M9 and when this will be announced it will generate a disproportionate amount of interest and discussions, but will not send the buyers in droves to the shop. Stripped from emotion and nostalgia, it is and will be a niche product. I will buy the M9 as a blind date, but I am an aberration I have to confess.
The main focus of current and future buyers in the high-end photographic market is fixed on only one thing: a dslr with a 35mm sized sensor and lots of features and a huge system of lenses and accessories. This is the terrain where the announced R10 will have to do battle. If the Leica company wants to survive, the R10 will be the lifeline. That puts a lot of pressure on the design team.
If the R10 is just a product comparable to the main dslr competition, it will loose on momentum if not on excellence. The Sony 900 will not succeed versus the Nikon D3x and the Canon models.
If the R10 is just different, it will share the fate of the R8/9, a product that was just different but lacked charisma.
It is not enough to have a very well designed product with a brilliant concept like the Olympus E1 and E3: this is not what the buyers want!
Leica has not the best track record for fathoming the deep wishes of its customers. The new SX and Nx lenses for the M are admirable products, but we may legitimately ask if this is what the mainstream M user is looking for.
Challenging times indeed for the mew CEO.